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Cake day: June 5th, 2023

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  • Basically they want people to think they’re stronger and that the US is weaker. It’s a PR campaign. The US almost certainly has had the same capability for a while and simply had no need to advertise.

    Recognize that the US would be foolish to fly a stealth fighter/bomber within range where multiple radar could lock on. They’d start their attack campaigns from far out and pick off the known ground radar installations at the perimeter, along with downing aircraft that tried to intercept them. After that, the US would have air superiority and only have to worry about mobile radar units. In any case, once they turn the radar on to look for the planes, they’re broadcasting their location and the plane can just launch a missile down their throat.





  • Good data, I wasn’t gonna bother digging it up, but I’m glad you did. I think it’s important to remember that all realities are more mixed than we like to infer from plots and our preferred view. That is, while the geographic opinions are strong, neither the East nor the West of Ukraine are a monolith in their opinions.

    I think you’re being a bit generous with the claim that central Ukrainians would have favored Russia as a destination, especially considering the data you brought. I also think you’re being generous with just how pro-Russia the East actually is, again considering the data you presented. I would also like to point out that the current front lines overlapping with public opinion tendencies is mostly a coincidence. Russia was intending to fully conquer Ukraine and failed. The current front line is only minimally influenced by the loyalty majority of the locals.

    Still, I want to thank you for bringing the data. Good numbers are always better than no numbers.


  • The most pro-Russian, pragmatic, and morally flexible Ukrainians would be the ones to be living in Russia even post-2014 invasion. I think most of the ordinary people were somewhat neutral before the invasions. Plus, you know, a population always contains a spectrum of opinions. The Eastern part of Ukraine was known to have a reasonable amount of pro-Russian people in it before 2014, that’s part of how Putin justified invading.

    I’m sure even now most Ukrainians aren’t exactly anti-Russia anymore than Americans were anti-Afghanistan when we (needlessly) invaded to go after the Taliban. A vocal minority were rabid about killing them all, while most people were only interested in killing the actual terrorists, if they were in support of the invasion at all. Likewise, I’m sure most Ukrainians don’t find Russia to be evil in general, only the people in power responsible for the invasions.

    Finally, I must point out that while Russia is merely at the top of the list with muddy population numbers, not-Russia absolutely curb stomps yes-Russia.

    The vast majority of people, when faced with an invasion, run away from the invaders, not towards them.